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Evidence Analysis: Proving What You Know

Past event
Linda Hammond
Speaker
Linda Hammond
Date & Time
Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 19:00
Location
Zoom
Details
How many of the “facts” in your family tree are truly proven - and how many are just educated guesses? In genealogy, it’s all too easy to fall into the trap of assumptions: a family story that must be true, an “obvious” connection that fits neatly, or a record that seems reliable at first glance. But without careful evidence analysis, we risk building a house of cards.

This talk introduces you to the tools and methods that turn uncertain clues into sound conclusions. You’ll learn the difference between information, evidence, and proof; how to distinguish direct, indirect, and even negative evidence; and why the Genealogical Proof Standard (GPS) is your best safeguard against errors.

Through clear examples, we’ll explore how to handle conflicting sources, weigh reliability, and avoid common misconceptions about records. You’ll also discover practical tools - like evidence tables and research logs - that make analysis manageable and effective.

Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned researcher, this talk will sharpen your detective skills, boost your confidence, and help you move from “I think” to “I know” in your family history research.

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Meeting Reports

Evidence Analysis: Proving What You Know by Site Admin on 19 Mar 2026 22:55

Introduction

The meeting was opened by Lynda Balmforth, who introduced the evening’s speaker, Linda Hammond. The session focused on one of the most important aspects of family history research—how to move beyond assumptions and build conclusions that can be properly supported and defended.

Linda set out to help researchers distinguish between what they think is correct and what they can confidently say they know through sound evidence analysis.


The Problem with Assumptions

A key theme of the talk was the danger of assumptions in genealogy. Linda highlighted several common traps:

  • Accepting family stories as fact

  • Choosing the “obvious” person in records

  • Assuming relationships based on location or surname

  • Relying on unverified online trees

These can lead to a fragile “house of cards” family tree, where one incorrect assumption can undermine years of research .


Information vs Evidence vs Proof

Linda clearly explained three essential concepts:

  • Information – A statement found in a record

  • Evidence – Information that has been analysed and evaluated

  • Proof – A well-reasoned conclusion based on all available evidence

She compared genealogy to a legal case: a single statement is not proof—it must be tested, corroborated, and weighed against other evidence before reaching a conclusion .


Types of Evidence

Three types of evidence were explored:

1. Direct Evidence

Answers a question clearly (e.g. a birth certificate giving a date of birth).

2. Indirect Evidence

Requires multiple sources to build a conclusion.
Most genealogical work relies on this type.

3. Negative Evidence

The absence of expected records (after thorough searching) can itself be meaningful and help eliminate possibilities.

Linda emphasised that strong conclusions often come from combining multiple pieces of indirect and negative evidence rather than relying on a single record .


Evaluating Sources and Reliability

A major part of the talk focused on assessing reliability:

  • Who provided the information?

  • When was it recorded?

  • How close were they to the event?

Linda introduced the idea that it is not the record itself that is reliable—but the information within it.

She explained:

  • Primary information – from someone with first-hand knowledge

  • Secondary information – based on memory or second-hand knowledge

  • Unknown informant – common in census records and online trees

Understanding this helps researchers assign appropriate weight to each piece of evidence.


Dealing with Conflicting Evidence

Conflicting records are not a problem—they are a sign of thorough research.

Rather than choosing the most convenient answer, Linda advised:

  1. Identify all conflicting statements

  2. Evaluate each source and informant

  3. Assign weight to each piece of evidence

  4. Reach a reasoned conclusion—or accept it remains unproven

Sometimes, the correct answer is simply: “we don’t know yet”.


The Genealogical Proof Standard (GPS)

Linda introduced the Genealogical Proof Standard, which provides a framework for reliable research:

  1. Reasonably exhaustive research

  2. Complete and accurate citations

  3. Analysis and correlation of evidence

  4. Resolution of conflicts

  5. A sound, written conclusion

This ensures conclusions are robust and defensible.


The WATCH Method

To simplify the process, Linda shared her practical checklist:

  • W – Weigh the source

  • A – Assess the informant

  • T – Time context

  • C – Corroborate with other evidence

  • H – Handle conflicts

This provides a quick, usable method for evaluating records and avoiding premature conclusions.


Key Takeaways

  • Genealogy is not about what seems likely—it is about what can be proven

  • Always question information, even from “good” sources

  • Most conclusions rely on multiple pieces of evidence

  • Absence of records can be just as important as their presence

  • It is acceptable—and often correct—to leave something unproven


Conclusion

This was an excellent and thought-provoking talk that encouraged all researchers—beginners and experienced alike—to take a more disciplined and analytical approach.

Linda’s clear explanations and practical examples provided valuable tools that members can immediately apply to their own research.


Acknowledgements

Our thanks go to Linda Hammond for an engaging and highly informative presentation, and to everyone who attended both in person and via Zoom.

A handout is available in the Digital Library